A linked data approach to publishing complex scientific workflows

Past data management practices in many fields of natural science, including climate research, have focused primarily on the final research output - the research publication - with less attention paid to the chain of intermediate data results and their associated metadata, including provenance. Data were often regarded merely as an adjunct to the publication, rather than a scientific resource in their own right. In this paper, we attempt to address the issues of capturing and publishing detailed workflows associated with the climate/research datasets held by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. To this end, we present a customisable approach to exposing climate research workflows for the effective re-use of the associated data, through the adoption of linked-data principles, existing widely adopted citation techniques (Digital Object Identifier) and data exchange mechanisms (Open Archives Initiative Object Reuse and Exchange)

Comparing monthly statistical distributions of wind speed measured at wind towers and estimated from ERA-Interim

International audienceThe energy sector is undergoing a major transformation with an increasing share of power supply from variable renewable energy sources and an increasing variability in energy demand in a variable and changing climate. The European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project will develop a demonstrator to assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over seasonal to long-term decadal time horizons, focusing on the role climate has on the mixes. ECEM is funded under the Copernicus Climate Change Service, operated by ECMWF on behalf of the European Union. Many surface climate variables needed to develop energy profiles are provided by the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Among these profiles, are wind power supply with wind speed at different heights as main inputs to determine periods when the wind power plants are expected to produce more or less than expected. In this view, a preliminary assessment of the monthly statistical distribution of wind speed at the standard height for wind power plants (80 m) has been performed. Time series of wind speed were obtained for the towers at Cabauw in The Netherlands and offshore at Docking Shoal in the North Sea. Reference statistical distributions were built for each month. Similarly, estimated statistical distributions were built using ERA-Interim estimates of wind speed at different levels. One series was built with a power approach and a second with a log approach. The estimated statistical distributions are then compared to the reference for each month. The log approach produces stronger winds than the power approach for both sites. At Cabauw, both approaches do not produce enough large wind speed for all months. At Docking Shoal, the power approach exhibits statistical distributions very close to the reference ones. Those from the log approach are biased towards higher wind speeds

The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database

The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection

Past and projected weather pattern persistence with associated multi-hazards in the British Isles

Hazards such as heatwaves, droughts and floods are often associated with persistent weather patterns. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are important tools for evaluating projected changes in extreme weather. Here, we demonstrate that 2-day weather pattern persistence, derived from the Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) objective scheme, is a useful concept for both investigating climate risks from multi-hazard events as well as for assessing AOGCM realism. This study evaluates the ability of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model sub-ensemble of 10 AOGCMs at reproducing seasonal LWTs persistence and frequencies over the British Isles (BI). Changes in persistence are investigated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) up to 2100. The ensemble broadly replicates historical LWTs persistence observed in reanalyses (1971-2000). Future persistence and frequency of summer anticyclonic LWT are found to increase, implying heightened risk of drought and heatwaves. On the other hand, the cyclonic LWT decreases in autumn suggesting reduced likelihood of flooding and severe gales. During winter, AOGCMs point to increased risk of concurrent fluvial flooding-wind hazards by 2100, however, they also tend to over-estimate such risks when compared to reanalyses. In summer, the strength of the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI) of London could intensify, enhancing the likelihood of combined heatwave-poor air quality events. Further research is needed to explore other multi-hazards in relation to changing weather pattern persistence and how best to communicate such threats to vulnerable communities

Environmental Risks of Cities in the European Region:Analyses of the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database

Introduction: In an increasingly urbanized world, cities are a key focus for action on health and sustainability. The Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) project aims to provide a shared information resource to support such action. Its aim is to test the feasibility and methods of assembling data about the characteristics of a globally distributed sample of cities and the populations within them for comparative analyses, and to use such data to assess how policies may contribute to sustainable urban development and human health. Methods: As a first illustration of the database, we present analyses of selected parameters on climate change, air pollution and flood risk for 64 cities in the WHO European Region. Results: Under a high greenhouse gas emissions trajectory (RCP8.5), the analyses suggest damaging temperature rises in European cities that are among the highest of any cities in the global database, while air pollution (PM2.5) levels are appreciably above the WHO guideline level for all but a handful of cities. In several areas, these environmental hazards are compounded by flood risk. Discussion: Such evidence, though preliminary and based on limited data, underpins the need for urgent action on climate change (adaptation and mitigation) and risks relating to air pollution and other environmental hazards

Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract]

Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract

Evaluating 21st century projections of anticyclonic weather frequency and persistence over the British Isles

Evaluating 21st century projections of anticyclonic weather frequency and persistence over the British Isle

Opening Up Climate Research: A Linked Data Approach to Publishing Data Provenance

Traditionally, the formal scientific output in most fields of natural science has been limited to peer-reviewed academic journal publications, with less attention paid to the chain of intermediate data results and their associated metadata, including provenance. In effect, this has constrained the representation and verification of the data provenance to the confines of the related publications. Detailed knowledge of a dataset’s provenance is essential to establish the pedigree of the data for its effective re-use, and to avoid redundant re-enactment of the experiment or computation involved. It is increasingly important for open-access data to determine their authenticity and quality, especially considering the growing volumes of datasets appearing in the public domain. To address these issues, we present an approach that combines the Digital Object Identifier (DOI) – a widely adopted citation technique – with existing, widely adopted climate science data standards to formally publish detailed provenance of a climate research dataset as an associated scientific workflow. This is integrated with linked-data compliant data re-use standards (e.g. OAI-ORE) to enable a seamless link between a publication and the complete trail of lineage of the corresponding dataset, including the dataset itself

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Intestinal Parasitic Infection among Children in an Urban Slum of Karachi

Background:Intestinal parasitic infections are endemic worldwide and have been described as constituting the greatest single worldwide cause of illness and disease. Poverty, illiteracy, poor hygiene, lack of access to potable water and hot and humid tropical climate are the factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections. The study aimed to estimate prevalence and identify factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections among 1 to 5 years old children residing in an urban slum of Karachi Pakistan. Methods And PrincipalFindings:A cross sectional survey was conducted from February to June 2006 in Ghosia Colony Gulshan Town Karachi, Pakistan. A simple random sample of 350 children aged 1-5 years was collected. The study used structured pre-tested questionnaire, anthropometric tools and stool tests to obtain epidemiological and disease data. Data were analyzed using appropriate descriptive, univariate and multivariable logistic regression methods. The mean age of participants was 2.8 years and 53% were male. The proportions of wasted, stunted and underweight children were 10.4%, 58.9% and 32.7% respectively. The prevalence of Intestinal parasitic infections was estimated to be 52.8% (95% CI: 46.1, 59.4). Giardia lamblia was the most common parasite followed by Ascaris lumbricoides, Blastocystis hominis and Hymenolepis nana. About 43% children were infected with single parasite and 10% with multiple parasites. Age {Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.9}, living in rented households (aOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.9) and history of excessive crying (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.4) were significantly associated with intestinal parasitic infections.Conclusion:Intestinal parasites are highly prevalent in this setting and poverty was implicated as an important risk factor for infection. Effective poverty reduction programmes and promotion of deworming could reduce intestinal parasite carriage. There is a need for mass scale campaigns to create awareness about health and hygiene

Development of a novel radial basis function network using genetic algorithms

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